Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?” a 93% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 7% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 93% |
| Volume | $145,920 |
| Closes | March 31, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The strong market consensus for no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 stems from the historical rarity of such colossal events, which occur roughly once every 50–100 years based on global records, with the most recent being Pinatubo in 1991. As of early September, ongoing activity remains limited to lower-intensity events, including episodic fountaining at Kīlauea, dome growth at Great Sitkin, and moderate explosive episodes at sites like Krasheninnikov and Anak Krakatau, none of which have produced ejecta volumes or plume heights meeting VEI 6 thresholds per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS data. No volcano currently shows the sustained deep seismicity, rapid deformation, or massive SO2 emissions signaling an impending ultra-Plinian eruption. A sudden escalation at an unmonitored or rapidly evolving system could still shift odds, though the short remaining timeframe and lack of precursors make this improbable.