Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?” a 88% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 12% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 88% |
| Volume | $202,236 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Advanced planetary defense networks, including NASA’s JPL Sentry system and ESA risk lists updated through early September 2026, show no catalogued near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy this year. Precise orbital tracking of recent safe flybys, such as 2026 GD and multiple meter-scale bodies, combined with refined catalogs from ground-based surveys, reinforces the low statistical likelihood of an undetected large meteoroid striking before year-end. Ongoing LSST data collection and preparations for the NEO Surveyor mission further support early detection capabilities, sustaining trader consensus around the 88% implied probability of no event while acknowledging residual uncertainty from undiscovered objects.