Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?” a 90% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 10% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 90% |
| Volume | $176,205 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to deliver a 10 kt or greater airburst remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Recent fireball activity, including the March Ohio event releasing roughly 0.25 kt and smaller Massachusetts and Houston incidents, has stayed well below the threshold despite a statistically notable rise in eyewitness reports. That surge reflects improved detection networks and seasonal “fireball season” patterns rather than elevated hazard. Historical records show 10 kt-class impacts occur on decadal rather than annual timescales for meter-scale objects, keeping trader consensus heavily weighted toward “No.” Ongoing surveys could still reveal previously undetected small impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and mid-year timing leave little room for a reversal.