Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?” a 87% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 13% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 87% |
| Volume | $16,685 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The high 86.8% market-implied probability for "No" on a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake within 50 miles of Los Angeles before 2027 stems primarily from the short remaining timeframe of roughly four months and established recurrence intervals on regional faults. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data indicate a 60% chance of an M6.7+ event in the Los Angeles area over 30 years, consistent with historical patterns showing such quakes occurring on decadal-to-centennial timescales, with the 1994 Northridge event as the most recent comparable example. Current Southern California Earthquake Data Center monitoring shows only minor seismicity, including recent events around M3.2–3.4 near Ontario, without foreshock sequences, unusual strain accumulation, or model consensus signaling elevated near-term risk. Traders weigh these factors against the low baseline annual probability derived from fault slip rates and paleoseismic records.