Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
As of July 29, 2026, the market gives “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?” a 64% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 64% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 37% |
| Volume | $352,546 |
| Closes | August 15, 2026 |
Updated July 29, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.