Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?” a 99% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 1% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 99% |
| Volume | $259,786 |
| Closes | October 1, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
U.S.-mediated talks produced a June 2026 trilateral framework agreement under which Israel committed to phased, conditions-based redeployment from southern Lebanon, beginning with limited pilot zones transferred to the Lebanese Armed Forces once verifiable Hezbollah disarmament occurs in those areas. Israeli officials have stated that troops will remain in the security zone until the Lebanese army demonstrates effective control and the Iran-backed group no longer poses a threat, a sequencing Hezbollah leaders have rejected as surrender. The accord links any broader Israeli withdrawal to measurable progress on disarmament and reconstruction rather than fixed timelines, with a U.S.-backed coordination group overseeing implementation. Fragile ceasefires have held with sporadic incidents since the deal, while both sides continue parallel diplomatic efforts amid ongoing U.S. involvement. Trader sentiment reflects these structural barriers and the absence of rapid disarmament milestones.