Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $211,494 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-brokered framework agreement in late June 2026 that ties any further Israeli Defense Forces redeployment from southern Lebanon to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in designated areas. The deal established two pilot zones for limited initial withdrawals and Lebanese army control, while allowing Israel to retain its expanded security zone south of the Litani River until threats are neutralized. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stressed that no timeline exists for broader pullbacks and that forces will remain as long as necessary. Hezbollah rejected the terms as surrender and continues low-level attacks, while ongoing bilateral talks through September 2026 focus on implementation, demining, and sovereignty issues amid persistent border tensions.