Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?” a 91% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 9% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 91% |
| Volume | $517,928 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Indonesia’s longstanding policy conditions formal diplomatic recognition of Israel on the latter’s acknowledgment of an independent Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed by President Prabowo Subianto in his September 2025 UN General Assembly address and subsequent statements. No such Israeli recognition has occurred, and recent Indonesian actions—including condemnations tied to Gaza developments—underscore continued alignment with the Palestinian cause. Domestic polling shows strong public opposition to normalization, limiting political space despite incentives such as Indonesia’s OECD accession bid and a February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement that ties economic ties to broader strategic alignment. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline approaching, the absence of breakthrough announcements or shifts in the two-state framework keeps trader-implied probabilities low.