Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
As of September 2, 2026, the market gives “Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?” a 94% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 7% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 94% |
| Volume | $533,188 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 2, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Indonesia maintains no formal diplomatic relations with Israel, citing its longstanding policy that recognition requires prior Israeli acknowledgment of a sovereign Palestinian state under a two-state framework. President Prabowo Subianto’s September 2025 UN General Assembly remarks softened rhetoric by emphasizing mutual security guarantees while reiterating the Palestinian precondition, yet subsequent reports of a potential visit were denied and normalization explicitly ruled out. Participation in the post-ceasefire Board of Peace and quiet trade growth have enabled limited functional contacts without triggering formal ties. Domestic political constraints, public opinion, and Indonesia’s foreign policy alignment continue to limit momentum, though OECD accession talks and U.S. incentives tied to Abraham Accords expansion remain potential catalysts if tied to verifiable Palestinian statehood progress.