Iran Nuke before 2027?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Iran Nuke before 2027?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $1,210,118 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, severely damaging or destroying centrifuge cascades and related infrastructure, according to damage assessments and IAEA reporting.** These operations, followed by a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire in April 2026, have limited Iran's ability to resume uranium enrichment to weapons-grade levels. IAEA inspectors lost access after the initial strikes, and subsequent reports show no verified resumption of enrichment activities, with Iran's pre-strike stockpile of highly enriched uranium remaining unaccounted for and reportedly inaccessible. Ongoing diplomatic talks have focused on verification demands and sanctions relief without agreement on permanent limits, while US intelligence assessments continue to indicate no reauthorized weaponization program. These factors underpin trader consensus that Iran is unlikely to acquire a nuclear device before 2027.