Iran coup attempt by December 31?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Iran coup attempt by December 31?” a 85% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 16% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 85% |
| Volume | $44,037 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Iran's political landscape in mid-June 2026 reflects consolidation following the February–May war with the United States and Israel, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, establishment of an interim leadership council, and a June 14 memorandum of understanding aimed at formalizing a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Regime institutions, led by IRGC figures such as Major General Ahmad Vahidi, have maintained control amid earlier protests and factional tensions, while negotiations advance toward a signing on June 19. These developments, combined with the absence of verified recent coup-related activity, underpin trader consensus on low near-term risk of an internal power seizure. A sudden breakdown in the emerging diplomatic framework or escalation in internal factional disputes remains among the limited developments that could alter the assessment before the June 30 window closes.