Iran coup attempt by December 31?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Iran coup attempt by December 31?” a 92% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 9% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 92% |
| Volume | $84,407 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Iran’s post-war leadership transition has fueled factional tensions that shape trader views on coup attempt probabilities. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death amid February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes, his son Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role but has remained largely absent from public view. Pragmatic officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi negotiated a U.S. truce, prompting hardline Paydari Front lawmakers to accuse them of a “soft coup” that sidelines parliament, the supreme leader, and revolutionary institutions in favor of the Supreme National Security Council. These claims peaked around Ali Khamenei’s July funeral amid chants and protests, with some hardliners later removed from key committees. U.S. officials have noted ongoing economic strain and possible internal divisions within the IRGC, yet no coordinated military or security force effort to seize power has been credibly reported. Upcoming diplomatic or protest developments could influence sentiment before year-end resolution.