Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?” a 57% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 57% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 43% |
| Volume | $154,103 |
| Closes | October 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding have introduced a 60-day period of charge-free transit through the Strait of Hormuz while demining occurs, following earlier 2026 conflict that included Iranian closure declarations and shipping attacks. Iran’s foreign ministry has stated it will not impose transit tolls but will levy fees for services such as navigation and environmental protection once the grace period ends around mid-August, consistent with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority established in May. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have rejected any tolls or fees as setting a dangerous precedent under international maritime law. Key variables for traders include whether the deal holds, enforcement of Iranian permitting requirements, and potential escalations or additional diplomatic steps before year-end deadlines.