Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
As of September 8, 2026, the market gives “Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?” a 94% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 94% |
| Volume | $2,207,571 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 8, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains a central issue in U.S.-Iran diplomacy following the June 2025 military strikes and the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.** The MOU commits the parties to resolve the disposition of the stockpile—estimated by the IAEA pre-strikes at roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60%—through a mutually agreed mechanism, with on-site down-blending under IAEA supervision specified as the minimum approach. It does not require immediate surrender, export, or destruction of the material, which largely remains inaccessible under rubble at sites like Isfahan. As of early September 2026, the IAEA still lacks verified access to key facilities and the stockpile itself, prompting U.S. efforts at the IAEA board to refer Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance. Negotiations on a final deal, including enrichment limits and verification, continue amid these verification gaps and diplomatic pressure.