Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?” a 88% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 13% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 88% |
| Volume | $2,023,622 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Ongoing US-Iran negotiations following 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities center on the roughly 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, with Washington pressing for its dilution, removal, or destruction under IAEA verification in exchange for sanctions relief. Iranian officials, including the foreign minister, have described the issue as postponed or a red line, citing a Supreme Leader directive against export, while US statements indicate in-principle agreement to address disposal in follow-on talks. A framework agreement is slated for finalization around June 20, 2026, with a subsequent 60-day period to resolve nuclear details that could extend, potentially incorporating third-country options such as transfer to China. These diplomatic timelines and verification mechanisms directly shape trader assessments of when any formal commitment on the stockpile might occur.