Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “ Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” a 79% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 22% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 79% |
| Volume | $1,309,586 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman following 2025 strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced a framework agreement and reports of Iranian willingness to dispose of or downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision. Recent statements from U.S. officials highlight progress on stockpile disposition and verification within a 60-day technical window, though enrichment limits remain a core dispute, with Tehran asserting its right to limited civilian enrichment and rejecting permanent zero-enrichment demands. These diplomatic steps, including ceasefire formalization and sanctions relief discussions, underpin traders' assessment of a 66% chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by year-end, while structural barriers like Supreme Leader directives and verification gaps sustain uncertainty.