FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “FDA approves Retatrutide this year?” a 90% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 11% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 90% |
| Volume | $575,721 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Eli Lilly’s retatrutide, a triple agonist targeting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors, remains in Phase 3 TRIUMPH trials as of mid-2026, with NDA submission projected no earlier than Q4 2026. Standard FDA review timelines of 10–12 months after filing place any potential approval in late 2027 or beyond, even after positive May 2026 TRIUMPH-1 topline data showing up to 28.3% mean weight loss at 80 weeks. Multiple ongoing studies, including cardiovascular outcomes trials with primary completion dates into 2026, further delay the regulatory package. Traders assign 88.5% probability to no 2026 approval because historical precedents and current trial status show insufficient time for data maturation, submission, and agency decision before year-end.