FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?” a 61% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 39% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 61% |
| Volume | $1,379 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent positive Phase 3 RASolute 302 trial data showing daraxonrasib nearly doubling median overall survival to 13.2 months versus chemotherapy in KRAS-mutated metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma have driven the 70.5% market-implied probability of FDA approval this year. The FDA's rapid May 2026 expanded access authorization, following 2025 Breakthrough Therapy and National Priority Voucher designations, signals strong regulatory support and intent to accelerate review via the Commissioner's voucher pathway. These factors, combined with the drug's RAS(ON) multi-selective mechanism addressing a key oncogenic driver, underpin trader confidence in a 2026 new drug application decision, though final approval hinges on confirmatory data review and any emerging safety signals.