Cuban regime falls in 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Cuban regime falls in 2026?” a 89% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 11% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 89% |
| Volume | $1,659,053 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The Cuban government under President Miguel Díaz-Canel has maintained control amid severe economic pressures, including prolonged power outages, fuel shortages, and localized protests through mid-2026, without triggering nationwide upheaval capable of forcing regime change. Repressive measures by security forces have contained demonstrations, while the opposition remains fragmented and lacks coordinated leadership for sustained action. U.S. sanctions and diplomatic efforts, intensified after events in Venezuela, produced stalled talks and no internal fractures sufficient to alter the trajectory by September. Recent reporting indicates expectations of rapid transition have receded as the regime demonstrates cohesion through its security apparatus and incremental economic adjustments. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring regime continuity through the end of 2026.