Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?” a 77% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 24% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 77% |
| Volume | $175,358 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.