9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?” a 94% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 94% |
| Volume | $248,010 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Global estimates place M9+ earthquakes at roughly one to three per century on average, reflecting multicentury recurrence intervals along major subduction zones and the absence of any such event since the 2011 Tohoku quake. With only about 18 months remaining until 2027 and 2026 seismicity limited to events below M8, USGS records and paleoseismic data reinforce trader consensus on the low near-term odds. Realistic challenges include an unexpected full-margin rupture on zones such as Cascadia, where time-independent models assign roughly 10-15% probability over 50 years, though current monitoring shows no accelerating precursors that would alter the short-term outlook.