5kt meteor strike in 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “5kt meteor strike in 2026?” a 77% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 24% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 77% |
| Volume | $313,185 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**No at 74.5% reflects historical base rates and surveillance data showing 5 kt-scale bolides occur only once every few years on average.** NASA CNEOS fireball records and infrasound monitoring indicate objects 3–7 meters in diameter capable of producing such airbursts are infrequent, with most years passing without a qualifying event. No cataloged near-Earth objects currently carry meaningful 2026 impact probabilities at this energy threshold, per JPL Sentry and ESA risk lists. Recent 2026 fireballs, including sub-kiloton events over Ohio and Massachusetts, have stayed well below the threshold. Small, undetected meteoroids introduce residual uncertainty, yet the absence of any confirmed or forecasted candidates through early September supports the market-implied odds favoring resolution to No by year-end. Continuous CNEOS updates and new survey data will refine this assessment.