100kt meteor strike in 2026?
As of July 29, 2026, the market gives “100kt meteor strike in 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $8,824 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 29, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and the Sentry impact-monitoring system report no known asteroids on collision trajectories with Earth in 2026, consistent with the absence of objects large enough to deliver 100 kilotons of kinetic energy. Comprehensive sky surveys have cataloged most near-Earth objects above roughly 140 meters, while smaller impactors capable of airbursts or ground strikes remain statistically rare on annual timescales. Continuous orbital refinements and new detections have further reduced residual uncertainty. A challenge could arise only from a previously undetected small body discovered weeks or days before potential impact, though current survey cadence makes such an event unlikely within the market’s timeframe.