Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?” a 56% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 45% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 56% |
| Volume | $182,429 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 56.5% implied probability due to explosive presales and early tracking projecting a $260–300 million domestic opening weekend, fueled by its December 18 holiday release, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and an Avengers-X-Men ensemble that taps into proven MCU event-film demand. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 44.5% after its July 31 debut set the all-time record at $360 million, yet faces a narrower franchise scope and earlier timing that limits upside. Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping sit near 0.1% each, constrained by more specialized audiences and November or shared December slots that historically yield lower openings than peak superhero spectacles. Upcoming trailer drops and final presale data through fall will likely sharpen these probabilities ahead of the December showdown.