Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?” a 94% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 94% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 7% |
| Volume | $637,403 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening—the biggest ever—and second-fastest climb past $1 billion worldwide have locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability. Strong reviews, an A CinemaScore, and a thin August slate allowed exceptional legs, pushing its worldwide total above $2.3 billion by early September while rivals like The Odyssey and Toy Story 5 trail well behind. Avengers: Doomsday remains the only realistic threat at 5.5%, but it would need an unprecedented holiday run to close the gap before year-end.