Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
As of July 29, 2026, the market gives “Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?” a 91% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 10% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 91% |
| Volume | $655,232 |
| Closes | October 31, 2026 |
Updated July 29, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Harry Kane leads Ballon d'Or 2026 trader sentiment at 30.6% implied probability due to his record goal output and domestic honors with Bayern Munich in the 2025-26 campaign, positioning the England captain as the standout individual performer heading into the World Cup. Kylian Mbappé (12.5%), Lamine Yamal (11.0%), Michael Olise (10.5%), and Ousmane Dembélé (9.3%) follow, reflecting strong club seasons at Real Madrid, Barcelona, and PSG alongside France's depth. Vitinha (8.0%) and others benefit from similar European consistency. The approaching World Cup represents the primary near-term variable that could elevate or diminish candidates based on national team results and standout performances.