Will Paddy Pimblett be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
As of July 27, 2026, the market gives “Will Paddy Pimblett be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?” a 93% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 7% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 93% |
| Volume | $524,793 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 27, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Justin Gaethje’s fourth-round stoppage of Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250 on June 14 has positioned the veteran as the current lightweight champion, though the market remains tight because the division features multiple viable long-term contenders.** Arman Tsarukyan sits immediately behind at #2 with strong recent form, including a submission win over Dan Hooker, and has publicly demanded the next title shot while voicing frustration over prior snubs. Charles Oliveira, Max Holloway, Benoît Saint Denis, and rising prospect Mauricio Ruffy occupy the next tier of rankings, each with paths to contention via strong performances or stylistic matchups. Topuria’s recent loss and reported injury concerns further open the timeline, while Paddy Pimblett’s earlier interim defeat limits his immediate trajectory. With Gaethje’s first defense still months away and several ranked fighters active through the remainder of 2026, traders see a realistic chance for at least one additional title change before year’s end.