Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?” a 94% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 7% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 94% |
| Volume | $54,086 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
OpenAI's most recent primary funding round closed in March 2026 at an $852 billion post-money valuation after raising $122 billion, anchored by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, with the figure reaffirmed in an August 2026 $7 billion employee tender. Revenue has scaled rapidly, reaching annualized run rates reported between $23 billion and $40 billion amid continued heavy infrastructure spending and persistent operating losses, with break-even projections extending into the early 2030s. A confidential IPO filing in June 2026, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, introduced uncertainty around timing and pricing, with discussions weighing a potential late-2026 listing near $852 billion against a 2027 debut targeting closer to $1 trillion. Secondary market indications, including Forge Global marks near $895 billion as of early September 2026, reflect ongoing private trading activity ahead of any public debut or further tenders.