Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?” a 65% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 35% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 65% |
| Volume | $88,074 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
OpenAI’s $852 billion valuation, reaffirmed by its March 2026 primary round and August 2026 employee tender, anchors current trader sentiment for any year-end threshold. Annualized revenue has climbed toward $25–40 billion amid enterprise adoption outpacing consumer, yet the company continues posting widening quarterly losses and scaling infrastructure outlays projected near $750 billion through 2030. A confidential S-1 filed in June 2026 with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley keeps IPO timing fluid, with CFO signals favoring 2027 over a 2026 debut. Secondary-market indications range from roughly $475 billion to $850 billion-plus, reflecting liquidity and growth versus dilution risks. Key near-term catalysts include potential Q3 revenue updates, regulatory or competitive shifts versus Anthropic, and any acceleration in IPO preparations that could reprice shares before December 31.