Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?” a 84% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 16% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 84% |
| Volume | $78,122 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Anthropic holds a commanding lead in trader sentiment for the best AI model by end-2026, with its Claude Fable 5.1, Fable 5, and Opus 5 models topping major benchmarks including BenchAlign, SWE-bench Verified, and the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index as of early September 2026. Recent releases—Opus 5 in July and Fable 5.1 on September 1—have extended advantages in agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, tool use, and knowledge-work tasks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Google’s Gemini variants. This sustained frontier performance, backed by real capital in prediction markets, underpins the 70% implied probability for Anthropic versus 16% for OpenAI. Continued scaling, safety evaluations, and competitive responses from other labs remain key variables that could influence final positioning.