Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
As of September 8, 2026, the market gives “Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?” a 64% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 64% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 36% |
| Volume | $4,015,635 |
| Closes | October 31, 2026 |
Updated September 8, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 63.6% implied probability due to his record 73 goals for club and country in 2025-26, including 61 for Bayern Munich en route to the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal double, plus 12 for England including six at the World Cup where the Three Lions finished third. This output trails only Lionel Messi's 2011-12 benchmark and exceeds recent benchmarks from Cristiano Ronaldo and Erling Haaland, elevating Kane despite the absence of Champions League or World Cup glory. Lamine Yamal sits second at 14.4% after Spain's tournament triumph and strong club form, while Kylian Mbappé holds 10.4% on the strength of his contributions. The shortlist announcement and voter emphasis on individual volume versus major honors have solidified this positioning in the weeks since the World Cup concluded.