Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
As of September 6, 2026, the market gives “Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?” a 91% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 10% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 91% |
| Volume | $67,685 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 6, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released in early September 2026, tops independent leaderboards including BenchAlign at 82.95 and leads on SWE-bench Verified and agentic coding metrics, driving the 63.5% market-implied odds. The company’s recent string of frontier releases has established consistent advantages in reasoning, long-context workflows, and computer-use tasks over rivals. OpenAI’s freshly launched GPT-6 Astra, scoring around 81 on the same index, narrows the gap in coding and cybersecurity but trails overall, supporting its 19.5% odds. Google’s Gemini Flash variants deliver strong value and speed yet lag frontier benchmarks, while Chinese labs trail further behind. With only months until year-end, traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s demonstrated trajectory most heavily amid rapid iteration cycles.