Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?” a 92% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 8% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 92% |
| Volume | $15,530 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
George R.R. Martin’s stalled progress on *The Winds of Winter*—with manuscript estimates stuck near 1,100 pages for years and no substantive updates in 2026—has anchored trader sentiment behind the 92.4% “No” probability for an announcement this year. Personal challenges including grief, depression, and the demands of aging have further slowed momentum, while Martin prioritizes companion projects such as *Fire & Blood* expansions and Dunk & Egg adaptations alongside existing HBO commitments. Recent blog posts and convention appearances have offered reassurance without timelines or milestones. A late-year surprise at an event like WorldCon remains possible if he delivers a completed manuscript, though historical patterns and current output make that outcome unlikely.