Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?” a 93% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 7% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 93% |
| Volume | $15,530 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Strong trader consensus behind the 93.3% “No” outcome stems from George R.R. Martin’s continued lack of meaningful progress on The Winds of Winter manuscript, coupled with his repeated focus on side projects and personal matters through mid-2026.** At 77, the author has acknowledged grief, health challenges, and divided attention while advancing Dunk & Egg novellas, television adaptations, and other ventures rather than delivering a firm completion or announcement timeline. Historical patterns of stalled updates and debunked rumors have reinforced market-implied odds that an announcement remains unlikely before year-end. A late surprise at a major convention or sudden manuscript delivery could still shift sentiment, though no verified developments point in that direction.