Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $15,108 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Strong trader consensus favoring “No” stems from George R.R. Martin’s long pattern of stalled progress and competing commitments.** As of January 2026 he reported roughly 1,100 manuscript pages completed—unchanged from prior years—while continuing convention appearances, television adaptations such as *A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms*, and other side projects that have historically slowed work on *The Winds of Winter*. Mid-year 2026 has brought only minor blog posts and fan speculation rather than any publisher-backed release-date reveal, and past statements indicate a major announcement would be unmistakable when it arrives. With more than half the calendar already passed and no surge in reported output or narrowed focus, traders see little realistic window for a credible 2026 announcement before year-end.