Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?” a 89% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 11% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 89% |
| Volume | $586,411 |
| Closes | December 6, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Mercedes leads the 2026 Constructors' Championship with 262 points to Ferrari's 190 and McLaren's 141, reflecting a substantial mid-season advantage that underpins the 84% implied probability in trader consensus. The Silver Arrows have excelled under the new regulations through superior power unit optimization and energy management, allowing Kimi Antonelli and George Russell to deliver consistent podiums and wins while customer teams lag in deployment efficiency. Ferrari has narrowed the gap via recent upgrades and Lewis Hamilton's Barcelona victory, yet trails meaningfully. McLaren and Red Bull remain competitive in isolated races but lack the sustained pace or reliability to challenge the leaders over remaining grands prix, with lower probabilities aligning with current form and points gaps.