Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?” a 94% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 94% |
| Volume | $53,224 |
| Closes | December 20, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability thanks to record-setting advance ticket sales of $16.5 million on its first day of availability and current tracking that points to a $260–300 million domestic opening weekend. The MCU crossover benefits from the Russo brothers’ direction, Robert Downey Jr. returning as Doctor Doom, and the franchise’s proven ability to deliver massive ensemble events, outpacing even recent benchmarks like Deadpool & Wolverine. Dune: Part Three has posted franchise-best pre-sales and will enjoy IMAX exclusivity, positioning it for a potential $100 million-plus debut, yet its more specialized sci-fi audience and lower historical openings limit its ability to overtake the Marvel title. Both films share the December 18, 2026 release date in a high-profile “Dunesday” clash, but any meaningful shift would require significant changes in presale momentum or critical reception in the final months.