Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?” a 78% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 78% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 22% |
| Volume | $20,032 |
| Closes | July 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent outages across Claude services in June—including major disruptions on June 2, 18, and 23 affecting claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and models like Opus—have heightened trader focus on Anthropic’s infrastructure resilience amid surging demand. These incidents, often tied to elevated error rates, networking issues, and high-traffic agentic workloads, follow similar events earlier in 2026 and have eroded confidence in consistent uptime despite reported 99.3–99.6% figures over recent quarters. With closely matched probabilities across downtime ranges, markets reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing engineering fixes, capacity upgrades, and model optimizations will stabilize performance in July or if continued growth and scaling will trigger additional incidents.