Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?” a 57% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 43% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 57% |
| Volume | $1,715,002 |
| Closes | September 13, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal with a right knee injury has reshaped the 2026 US Open men’s draw, elevating defending champion Carlos Alcaraz to the clear market leader at 43.5% implied probability. Alcaraz, back after a four-month wrist layoff, has dropped just one set through three rounds and looks sharp on hard courts. Top seed Alexander Zverev, fresh off a French Open title and Wimbledon final, sits at 20% but has endured five-set battles early. Home favorites Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton occupy the next tier around 11% and 8%, supported by strong recent hard-court results, while deeper names like Daniil Medvedev and emerging talents trail further behind in the trader consensus.