Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $933,019 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering July 2026 opening—$360 million domestically and nearly $930 million worldwide—has driven overwhelming trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the year’s top earner. The Tom Holland-led Sony release crossed $2 billion globally in record time on the strength of strong reviews, audience scores above 98%, and minimal summer competition, already securing the 2026 crown with more than $2.34 billion tallied by early September. Avengers: Doomsday, slated for mid-December, faces a steep climb despite solid presales, as its holiday window leaves limited runway to overtake the frontrunner. An upset would require the MCU crossover to post unprecedented late-year legs or a domestic debut rivaling Endgame while Spider-Man’s run slows dramatically.