Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $926,652 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering summer run has anchored trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability for the year’s highest gross. The Tom Holland–Zendaya Marvel sequel opened to a historic $360 million domestic weekend in late July, crossed $1 billion globally in six days, and has already surpassed $2.3 billion worldwide with nearly $900 million domestic as of early September—placing it second on the all-time domestic chart and well ahead of prior 2026 leaders such as Toy Story 5. Strong reviews, repeat viewership, and premium-format holds have sustained its dominance through Labor Day. Late-year releases including Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Messiah could narrow the gap if they deliver exceptional holiday legs, but the current $1.5 billion-plus lead makes an upset improbable without unprecedented performance from those December titles.