Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
As of September 10, 2026, the market gives “Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $25,370 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 10, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".