Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?” a 99% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 1% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 99% |
| Volume | $78,227 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Anthropic’s IPO timeline, now targeting mid-October marketing after a late-September S-1 filing and a $15 billion revolving credit facility, anchors trader sentiment around a roughly $2 trillion closing market cap. Explosive revenue momentum—annualized run rate rising from $9 billion at end-2025 to over $65 billion recently, with 2028 projections near $190–200 billion—supports premium multiples comparable to SpaceX’s recent debut, while the $965 billion May 2026 private valuation provides a base. Closely matched leading outcomes near $2.0–2.5 trillion reflect uncertainty over sustained growth, competitive AI positioning against OpenAI, and broader market appetite for high-valuation tech listings amid macroeconomic volatility.