Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?” a 99% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 1% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 99% |
| Volume | $78,237 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Anthropic’s IPO preparations, including a confidential S-1 filed in June and a planned late-September prospectus, anchor trader sentiment around a roughly $2 trillion closing market cap. Explosive revenue growth—from a $47 billion annualized run rate in May to $65 billion by July—combined with a May Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation, supports market-implied odds clustering in the $2.0–$2.5 trillion range. Recent reports of a mid-October marketing launch, a targeted $15 billion credit facility, and potential $100 billion-plus raise have sustained expectations near $2 trillion while introducing timing uncertainty ahead of the U.S. midterms. The narrow spread among leading outcomes reflects ongoing debate over public-market multiples, execution risks, and competitive positioning versus peers like OpenAI.