Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?” a 98% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 2% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 98% |
| Volume | $69,645 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Rapid revenue expansion underpins trader sentiment for Anthropic’s IPO closing market cap, with annualized run-rate revenue surging from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $65 billion by July 2026 amid strong enterprise adoption of its Claude models. This trajectory, paired with internal projections for $100–120 billion by year-end 2026 and $190–200 billion in 2028, supports market-implied odds clustering around the $1.75–2.5 trillion range, reflecting expectations of premium multiples in a sector lacking direct public peers. The June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and banker discussions of a potential $100 billion raise at near-$2 trillion valuation intensify the competitive dynamic with OpenAI, while SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion debut provides a recent benchmark. Dispersed probabilities highlight uncertainty over gross margins, compute costs, and broader equity-market reception ahead of the anticipated September or October listing.