Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?” a 63% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 63% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 37% |
| Volume | $121,715 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Anthropic’s recent releases, particularly Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 in early September 2026, have driven its 62.5% implied probability by posting the highest scores on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign, excelling in agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and SWE-bench metrics. These closed frontier large language models outperform OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, launched days later and positioned at 22.5%, which leads in some software engineering and cybersecurity evaluations but trails overall. Google’s Gemini variants, xAI, and Meta trail further due to narrower capability edges, while open-weight leaders like DeepSeek close gaps on specific tasks at lower cost. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s sustained benchmark dominance and enterprise adoption momentum into year-end.