Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?” a 64% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 64% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 37% |
| Volume | $121,718 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Anthropic’s early September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have driven its commanding 63.5% implied probability by topping independent leaderboards such as BenchLM and the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with scores above 66, excelling in agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and efficiency metrics like Frontier-Bench and CursorBench. These models build on Opus 5’s July gains in software engineering and knowledge work while maintaining competitive pricing and safety features, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch and earlier GPT-5.6 variants. Traders see Anthropic’s consistent frontier positioning and enterprise adoption as durable through year-end, though rapid iteration from Google, OpenAI, or xAI could still shift outcomes before December.