Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?” a 83% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 17% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 83% |
| Volume | $52,503 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Justin Aguiar, the Toronto-based dating coach known online as “Drunk Justin,” faces a single sexual assault charge stemming from an August 2024 incident, with his initial court appearance set for January 2026. Multiple women have since come forward publicly with additional allegations, yet no trial date has been confirmed and Canadian courts continue to manage significant backlogs in sexual assault cases. Historical patterns show that proceedings from charge to verdict frequently extend well beyond 18 months, making a conviction before the end of 2026 improbable. Traders appear to be pricing in these procedural timelines and the absence of any accelerated resolution signals, leaving the market-implied odds heavily favoring no conviction by the 2027 cutoff.