Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?” a 81% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 19% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 81% |
| Volume | $52,562 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Traders assign an 82.7% implied probability to “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 because Canadian sexual assault cases rarely reach judgment on such an accelerated timeline. Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count tied to an August 2024 allegation; his two prior charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn after lengthy proceedings. Court backlogs, disclosure requirements, and typical scheduling in Ontario mean a trial is unlikely before late 2026 or 2027. With the market resolving on December 31, 2026, the absence of any recent plea, preliminary hearing outcome, or accelerated proceedings reinforces the market’s skepticism that a conviction will occur in the remaining months.