Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?” a 91% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 91% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 10% |
| Volume | $61,584 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Anthropic’s stronger revenue momentum and elevated private-market pricing underpin the 90.5% market-implied probability it will hold the higher valuation on December 31, 2026. Its May 2026 Series H set a $965 billion post-money mark with a $47 billion annualized run rate, outpacing OpenAI’s $852 billion March valuation and roughly $25–30 billion run rate, while secondary trading has since lifted Anthropic’s implied value above $1 trillion. Enterprise adoption of Claude, particularly in coding tools, has driven faster growth and better capital efficiency than OpenAI’s loss-heavy expansion. Key catalysts ahead include potential IPO pricing windows that could crystallize public valuations before year-end. Still, OpenAI’s consumer scale and capacity for additional strategic funding represent realistic paths that could narrow or reverse the gap.