Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?” a 83% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 83% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 18% |
| Volume | $40,175 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Anthropic’s May 2026 Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation—surpassing OpenAI’s $852 billion March mark—has anchored trader sentiment, reinforced by Anthropic’s $30–47 billion annualized revenue run rate and first projected operating profit of $559 million in Q2 2026 versus OpenAI’s heavier losses and consumer-heavy mix. Enterprise-focused revenue growth, lower compute costs relative to scale, and Anthropic’s confidential June 1 IPO filing at a potential $1 trillion level further support the 71.5% market-implied probability that Anthropic holds the higher year-end valuation. Key upcoming catalysts include both companies’ IPO pricing windows, quarterly revenue disclosures, and any additional funding rounds that could shift multiples before December 31.