Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?” a 88% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 12% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 88% |
| Volume | $46,054 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields, currently near 4.77-4.79% as of early September 2026, stems primarily from elevated inflation expectations tied to energy price volatility, a widening term premium amid heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns exceeding $40 trillion in debt, and robust nominal growth. Markets are pricing in a meaningful chance of Federal Reserve rate hikes at the mid-September FOMC meeting, with the policy path shifting higher versus earlier easing bets. These dynamics, alongside corporate borrowing for AI-related investment and revised neutral rate assessments, have lifted real yields and reduced prospects for near-term declines. Key upcoming data releases and the September policy decision could influence whether yields test lower levels before year-end.