Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?” a 93% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 7% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 93% |
| Volume | $33,148 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent U.S. economic data and policy signals have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.76% as of early September 2026, limiting prospects for sharp declines before year-end. Hotter-than-expected August payrolls and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have elevated rate-hike odds ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, while surging energy prices and heavy Treasury issuance amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt have widened the term premium. AI-driven corporate borrowing has added supply pressure, competing for long-duration capital. A decisive cooling in labor or inflation readings, or confirmation of steady policy from Chair Warsh and Governor Waller, could ease yields; otherwise, resilient growth and fiscal dynamics suggest the low may remain well above historical averages through 2026.