Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?” a 94% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 94% |
| Volume | $4,431,640 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.