Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?” a 70% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 31% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 70% |
| Volume | $27,617 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, currently tops multiple leaderboards including composite scores near 97 and strong agentic/coding benchmarks, driving trader consensus toward its leadership through year-end. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (launched September 4) and GPT-5.6 variants sit close behind with competitive reasoning and context windows up to 1.1M tokens, while Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 and models from Google, xAI, and Chinese labs like Qwen and Kimi trail but remain in the top tier. Frequent releases, benchmark volatility, and rapid iteration among frontier labs create uncertainty, with traders watching for any late-2026 model that could shift the #1 position before December 31.