Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 4% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $44,121 |
| Closes | July 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent trading shows Apple and Alphabet maintaining market capitalizations within a narrow band behind NVIDIA’s roughly $4.8–5.1 trillion lead, with Apple near $4.3 trillion and Alphabet around $4.2–4.5 trillion as of late June 2026. Trader sentiment reflects this tight contest, pricing Apple at 45% and Alphabet at 43.5% for second place by end-July, alongside elevated odds for several other names amid ongoing share-price volatility. Differentiating factors include Alphabet’s stronger AI-driven revenue momentum from cloud and search versus Apple’s more stable hardware and services growth, with no major quarterly reports due before resolution. Equity-market swings tied to interest-rate expectations and sector rotation remain the key swing variables that could shift relative valuations over the next five weeks.