Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
As of September 2, 2026, the market gives “Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?” a 89% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 89% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 11% |
| Volume | $7,860,704 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 2, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Strong inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, particularly elevated oil prices tied to the Iran conflict, combined with a hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh have driven the 88.9% market-implied probability of zero rate cuts in 2026. The federal funds target range remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with recent data showing PCE inflation near 3.7% and core measures sticky above target. Traders now price a substantial chance of hikes by year-end rather than easing, reflecting resilient labor market conditions (unemployment near 4.1%) and the removal of dovish forward guidance. Upcoming September FOMC decisions and inflation releases will test whether these factors sustain the current policy stance.