Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” a 66% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 34% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 66% |
| Volume | $3,191,645 |
| Closes | July 20, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Kylian Mbappé leads the Golden Boot market at 25.5% implied probability after opening his 2026 account with goals for France in the group stage, building on his 2022 triumph and strong club output at Real Madrid. Lionel Messi sits close behind at 21.1% on the strength of Argentina’s attacking depth and his prior tournament pedigree, while Harry Kane holds 19.5% following a record 61-goal club season at Bayern Munich that reinforces his proven international finishing. Erling Haaland and emerging options like Kai Havertz trail further back, reflecting their teams’ paths and variable early returns. With the expanded 48-team format extending run-ins and several elite forwards still in contention, the tight spread among the top three underscores how group-stage results, knockout progression, and minor scoring swings can rapidly shift consensus on who claims the most goals.