Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” a 79% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 21% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 79% |
| Volume | $100,692,012 |
| Closes | July 20, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.