Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?” a 98% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 98% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 2% |
| Volume | $29,343 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
CXMT’s IPO market cap odds reflect a balance between its recent regulatory clearance and explosive earnings growth against valuation uncertainty and execution risks. Cleared for Shanghai STAR listing in May 2026 after submitting an updated prospectus, the company targets raising 29.5 billion yuan while reporting Q1 revenue of 50.8 billion yuan and net profit of 24.76 billion yuan—up sharply year-over-year amid a DRAM super-cycle tied to AI demand. First-half 2026 profit guidance of 50–57 billion yuan supports analyst models projecting post-IPO market caps from roughly 300 billion yuan (older benchmarks) to 3–4 trillion yuan at 10–20x earnings, creating tight 50% splits across the listed ranges. Key swing factors include final pricing multiples relative to global peers like SK Hynix, potential HBM3 ramp delays, and whether the offering closes by year-end 2026 amid ongoing U.S. export curbs.