Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?” a 87% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 13% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 87% |
| Volume | $870,560 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
NVIDIA's dominant position in AI semiconductors, with a market capitalization exceeding $5.3 trillion as of early September 2026, underpins its 77.5% implied probability of remaining the largest company by year-end. Robust data center revenue growth exceeding 100% year-over-year in recent quarters, coupled with management guidance for approximately 70% revenue expansion in fiscal 2028 amid supply-constrained demand, has reinforced trader consensus on sustained momentum. Apple and Alphabet trail at roughly $4.7 trillion and $4.1 trillion respectively, reflecting more modest growth trajectories, while smaller contenders like SpaceX and Microsoft face steeper valuation gaps that recent earnings and sector trends have not materially narrowed.